Political inequality may cultivate grievances against the government and eventually provoke conflict. In the Philippines, this is reflected in the prevalence of political dynasties. Often these dynasties face deep conflicts of interest as they prioritize clientelist ties over the public good, and act as bosses in their local constituencies. Through regression analysis, this paper finds robust statistical evidence that two out of three measures of political dynasty persistence are positively associated with political violence. Results suggest that a concentration of power leads to weaker governance and worse development outcomes, excludes critical sectors, and ultimately provokes political violence. The study emphasizes the importance of promoting checks and balances for more inclusive and peaceful development in emerging democracies such as the Philippines.

Tensions in the South China Sea have risen in recent years for reasons related to conflicting territorial claims and rivalry, competition for access to fish stocks as well as oil and gas fields, and in China’s case, emerging strategic interests. Because international law largely excludes it from an area it regards as historically Chinese, China has recently become more assertive in pushing its claim, resorting to power projection, particularly against smaller claimants, such as Vietnam and the Philippines. China’s actions have drawn in external powers, including the United States, Japan, and India, a development that exacerbates the problem. The danger is not that the United States and China may come into a direct conflict, but that through error or miscalculation a clash may escalate into a conflict involving external powers. Proposals to prevent conflict and stabilize the area include an agreement to avoid incidents at sea. Also a UN-sponsored conference on the South China Sea could contribute to a long-term resolution of the issue by dealing with competing claims in a semi-enclosed sea and other outstanding issues.