남북통합지수 개발을 위한 기초연구

[서울대통일연구소 통일학연구2]

• 제목 : 남북통합지수 개발을 위한 기초연구
• 저자 : 김병로, 김병연, 박명규, 정은미
• 발행일 : 2007.12
• 인쇄처 : 도서출판 늘품

서문

최근 몇 년 동안 남북관계는 놀라운 속도로 변모하고 있다. 한 해에 10만 명이 넘는 사람들이 평양과 개성 등 북한지역을 왕래하고 있으며 남북간 교역액도 10억 달러를 넘는 규모로 성장했다. 금강산관광에 이어 개성관광이 시작되었고 조만간 백두산관광과 평양관광도 개시될 것이다. 남북정상회담에서 합의한 ‘서해평화특별지대’ 설치와 공동어로구역 설정 등을 다루기 위한 경제, 군사, 사회문화 분과위원회 회담과 이산가족상봉을 위한 적십자회담이 분주히 이루어지고 있다.
이처럼 남북간 교류와 왕래의 증대로 인해 남북관계는 더욱 다층적인 복합체제로 변화되었다. 이제 남북간에 이루어지는 교류와 협력의 관계망은 정치나 외교, 경제나 문화 등 어느 하나의 차원에서만 분석할 수 없는
다차원적 네트워크로 형성되어 있다. 뿐만 아니라, 매일 쏟아져 나오는 수많은 북한·통일 관련 자료들을 종합적으로 분석·평가하는 작업은 이제 한 개인의 능력에만 의존할 수 없는 수리적 복잡성까지 띠고 있다.
이러한 상황에서 남북관계의 복합적 상황을 종합적으로 분석하고 이를 일반국민들에게 쉽게 이해할 수 있는 수단을 통해 전달해야할 필요성이 생겨났다. 마치 복잡하게 작동하는 주식시장을 평범한 국민들이 이해하기 쉽도록 만들어 놓은 종합주가지수(KOSPI)와 같은 인덱스 작업이 필요하지 않나 하는 것이다. 남북통일을 ‘통합’이라는 개념으로 접근하면 통합의 정도를 수치로 표시할 수 있을 것이다. 남북의 통일과정을 종합주가지수와 같은 계량적 방법으로 분석·평가하고 지수화한다면 경험적 통일연구를 심화시킬 수 있을 뿐 아니라 국민들의 통일에 대한 관심도 끌어 올리는
계기가 될 것이다. 다행히 정보기술의 발달로 복잡한 자료들을 간단히 처리할 수 있는 컴퓨터와 소프트프로그램이 개발되어 있어 계량분석과 지수화 작업에 유용하게 활용할 수 있게 된 것은 큰 장점이 아닐 수 없다.
이런 점에서 서울대 통일연구소는 ‘남북통합지수’ 개발을 착안하고 1차년도 연구를 진행하였다. 1차년도 연구는 본격적인 남북통합지수 작업을 진행하기에 앞서 기존의 지수연구를 살펴보는 것으로 하였다. 남북통합을
측정하려면 어떤 변수들을 고려해야 하는지, 변수들은 어느 정도 측정가능한지, 관련 자료는 확보할 수 있는지, 그리고 프로그램화는 어떻게 할 수 있는지 등에 관해 논의할 필요를 느꼈다. 그래서 유럽통합지수와 독일 통합지수 등 국제적으로 활용되고 있는 신빙성 있는 지수들과 한반도를 대상으로 한 평화지수, 갈등지수, 교류협력지수 등 다양한 영역에서 경험적 지수화 작업들을 살펴보았다.
남북통합지수 개발 사업은 통일의 과정 뿐 아니라 통일 이후의 통합상태를 평가하는 데도 상당한 유용성을 지닌 포괄적 통합측정모델이 될 것 이다. 또한 통합의 영역을 정치(외교·군사), 경제, 사회문화의 세 영역으로 구분하고, 각 영역에서 제도, 교류, 의식의 3차원으로 범주를 설정하였다.
이러한 기존의 연구들과 작업들을 기초로 남북통합지수 개발에 필요한 가장 적합한 변수와 지표를 선정하고, 2008년에는 구체적인 자료를 대입하여 시뮬레이션을 실행함으로써 통합지수 개발을 위한 2차년도 작업을
진행해 나갈 것이다.
이 연구를 위해 지난 1년 동안 헌신적으로 참여해 준 모든 연구자들에게 감사를 드린다. 특히 국내외에 있는 방대한 자료를 수집하고 정리하느라 수고한 장선하 연구보조원과 원고교정과 출판을 위해 시간을 내어준 허정범 연구원에게 고마움을 전한다.
아무쪼록 서울대 통일연구소의 남북통합지수 개발 사업이 북한·통일분야의 경험적 연구를 종합화하고 체계화하는데 기여할 수 있기를 바라며, 통일에 대한 국민들의 관심을 높이는 기폭제가 되기를 기대한다.

서울대 통일연구소
남북통합지수 개발 연구팀

목차

서 문 ··································································································· ⅱ
Ⅰ. 서론 ································································································ 1
1. 연구의 필요성 ··········································································3
2. 연구목적 ····················································································6
3. 연구내용 ···················································································8
1) 통합의 개념 정립 ·······························································8
2) 측정모형 개발 ···································································10
4. 연구방법 ··················································································12
Ⅱ. 통합 개념의 새로운 정립을 위한 이론과 실제 ·························15
1. 통합 개념에 대한 다양한 이론 ··············································17
2. 통합 개념의 실제적 적용과 한계 ·········································20
Ⅲ. 국내외 관련 지수의 사례들 ·······················································25
1. 국내 지수의 사례들 ·······························································27
1) 통일지수 ············································································27
2) 한반도평화지수(KOPI) ····················································35
3) 세계평화지수(World Peace Index) ······························40
4) 북한투자가능성지수 ··························································42
5) 안보체감지수 ····································································44
2. 해외의 관련 지수 사례들 ······················································45
1) 해외 지수 개발의 방법론 ················································45
2) 해외의 지수 사례들 ·························································47
Ⅳ. 남북통합지수 개발을 위한 지표 구성과 측정 ··························53
1. 남북통합지수의 지표 구성 ·····················································55
1) 지수 개발의 원칙 ·····························································55
2) 남북통합지수의 구성 요소 ···············································56
2. 남북통합지수의 측정과 한계 ·················································62
1) 영역별‧단계별 변수 측정방법 ·········································62
2) 남북통합지수 측정의 한계점 ···········································67
Ⅴ. 결론 ······························································································71
1. 남북통합지수 개발의 의의 ·····················································73
2. 연구결과와 시범적 적용 ························································75
3. 연구의 기대효과와 향후 연구계획 ········································79
참고문헌 ·····························································································83
부록 ·····································································································87
<부록 1> 독일의 Datenreport의 지표 범주 ··························89
<부록 2> 독일의 Sozialreport의 지표 범주 ························103
<부록 3> 유럽부흥개발은행(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD) 체제전환지표 ··························································108

표목차

<표 1> 통일지수의 영향요인, 구성개념, 변인, 지표 ·················28
<표 2> 통일지수 – 북한실태 설문조사 요인 분석 결과 ·············32
<표 3> ‘한반도평화지수’(KOPI)에서 국가 관계 범주 분류 ······36
<표 4> 세계평화포럼의 세계평화지수의 세 가지의 하위개념과 측정지표 ···········································································41
<표 5> 유럽지표의 아이템 ··························································48
<표 6> 독일의 Datenreport의 지수 범주 ·································49
<표 7> 유럽시민통합지수에서의 통합의 의미 ····························52
<표 8> 남북통합지수의 구성 요소 ··············································57
<표 9> 남북통합지수의 측정 – 범주와 변수들의 예 ···················61
<표 10> 남북통합지수의 경제영역의 변수들의 배점의 예 ··········64
<표 11> 남북통합지수의 측정방법과 참고 자료 ··························67
<표 12> 2007 각 영역별 남북한 통합을 위한 합의 내용
(2007.12.10 현재) ···························································78